http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/05/27/active-hurricane-seasons-record-year-say-scientists/
Published May 27, 2010
FOXNews.com
NOAA
Hurricane Bill hovers 820 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, on August 21, 2009. Bill was a category 3 hurricane with 115 MPH winds at the time.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issues its 2010 hurricane season forecast, predicting one of the strongest seasons on record -- and reiterating fears that the Gulf oil spill may be impacted by the severe weather.
Hurricane season for the western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico begins June 1 and lasts through Nov. 30. That's when about 90 percent of the storms make themselves present, and the predictions for this season are grim -- which could wreak further havoc on the Gulf Coast.
NOAA's forecast predicts as many as 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, with three to seven becoming serious enough to be classified as major hurricanes. Named storms come with top winds of 39 mph or higher. The agency worries that as many as 14 could turn into hurricanes, with winds in excess of 74 mph, and three to seven could be Category 3, 4 or 5 storms with winds of at least 111 mph.
“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”
This jibes with earlier predictions of a severe hurricane season from Accuweather and scientists at Colorado State.
Mexico worries seasonal shift in currents could bring Gulf oil spill to Mexican shores
Weakening El Nino conditions could complicate forecasting hurricane season "It's going to be a bigger than average hurricane season and it's going to start sooner," Accuweather's Joe Bastardi told FoxNews.com in May. And Colorado State University meteorologists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray also predict rough weather in their extended-range hurricane forecast.
"The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Nina develops this summer," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The intense forecast is based on the weakening of El Nino, a Pacific Ocean phenomenon that creates strong wind shear that weakens Atlantic storms.
"At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Nina to develop."
Predictions of an active hurricane season bring the risk that oil from the DeepWater oil spill may be affected by the dramatic seasonal storms. Early predictions suggested that oil may be pushed into the Loop Current that circles Florida and be carried around the state and up the Atlantic coast.
In May, Accuweather's Bastardi expressed his concerns about this eventuality. "This oil slick is probably going to be impacted in some way by this hurricane season," the chief long-range meteorologist and hurricane forecaster said.
"It's going to be a bigger than average hurricane season and it's going to start sooner," he said.
The agency agrees, but believes that the Loop Current won't be a factor. NOAA believes oil in the Gulf of Mexico is likely to stay there for now, since the Loop Current has pinched a path from Florida. The agency worries instead that the intense storm season may push oil onto shores, furthering the environmental catastrophe that may be facing Gulf states.
"FEMA is working across the administration and with our state and local partners to ensure we're prepared for hurricane season," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. "But we can only be as prepared as the public, so it's important that families and businesses in coastal communities take steps now to be ready. These include developing a communications plan, putting together a kit, and staying informed of the latest forecasts and local emergency plans. You can't control when a hurricane or other emergency may happen, but you can make sure you're ready."
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Showing posts with label hurricane. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hurricane. Show all posts
Friday, May 28, 2010
Friday, May 7, 2010
FEMA News Release on Preparing Pets for Disasters
Today FEMA put out a news release on how pet owners can get their pets ready for disasters, especially since hurricane season is coming soon. You can read more at http://www.fema.gov/news/newsrelease.fema?id=51293
WASHINGTON - With less than a month until the beginning of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) urges Americans to ensure their families, homes and businesses are prepared for the risks associated with hurricanes, tropical storms and other emergencies. Individuals and families are encouraged to have a family communications plan, put together an emergency kit and include their pets in their planning efforts. FEMA recognizes Saturday, May 8, 2010 as National Animal Disaster Preparedness Day.
"As hurricane season approaches, FEMA is coordinating with state and local officials to ensure that all communities along the coast are prepared to respond. But we can only be as prepared as the public, and so it's important that everyone take steps now to help keep their family safe in the event of a hurricane or other emergency. This includes their pets," said FEMA Deputy Administrator Rich Serino.
FEMA encourages pet owners to take the following steps:
Be informed: Know what emergencies happen in your community and how those events could impact your pet;
Prepare: Put together pet emergency kit specific to your pets needs; and
Plan: Develop a plan for what you will do with your pets in the event of an emergency. To learn more about the steps pet owners can take to prepare your pets for a disaster.
To learn what you can do to prepare your family and your pets, visit www.Ready.gov.
To view a message from FEMA Deputy Administrator Rich Serino, visit http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lF9qcLyHQzo
Friday, August 14, 2009
Atlantic Weather System May Become Hurricane
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ah2aLNBlGXos
Atlantic Weather System May Become Hurricane, Planalytics Says (Bloomberg News)
By Brian K. Sullivan
Bloomberg News, August 14, 2009
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- A system of thunderstorms in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Africa may develop into a hurricane by early next week and pose a "formidable threat" to the U.S., according to forecasting company Planalytics Inc.
The system, centered about 250 miles (402 kilometers) south of the Cape Verde islands, is moving west and has a greater than 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, the National Hurricane Center said.
"It remains likely this storm system will represent a formidable threat to U.S. interests next week up the Atlantic seaboard" and in the Gulf of Mexico, said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist at Planalytics in Wayne, Pennsylvania, in an e-mail. "It is premature to predict at this point in time who is at most risk."
The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, has yet to produce a named storm this year. Conditions in the ocean are now conducive to storm formation, said another forecaster.
A tropical depression currently moving west in the Atlantic ahead of the storms off Africa will increase the chances of a hurricane occurring next week, said Mike Pigott, a meteorologist with forecaster AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
The depression has weakened because it has encountered dry air, and not enough of the warmer, moister air that causes the storms to strengthen, Pigott said. By sweeping that drier air away, the depression will open a path for the system off the African coast to intensify, he said.
'Major Hurricane'
"The second one, which is much larger, that is the one that could become a major hurricane, Category 3 or higher, early next week," Pigott said.
A storm reaches Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale when its winds are 111 miles (178 kilometers) per hour or more. Hurricane Ike, which killed 54 people and caused about $18 billion in damage, had winds of about 110 mph when it hit the Texas coast near Galveston last year.
Atlantic storms can shut down oil and gas rigs and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico and damage citrus crops in Florida, which is the world's second-largest orange producer behind Brazil. The Gulf is home to about 26 percent of all U.S. oil production.
Atlantic Weather System May Become Hurricane, Planalytics Says (Bloomberg News)
By Brian K. Sullivan
Bloomberg News, August 14, 2009
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- A system of thunderstorms in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Africa may develop into a hurricane by early next week and pose a "formidable threat" to the U.S., according to forecasting company Planalytics Inc.
The system, centered about 250 miles (402 kilometers) south of the Cape Verde islands, is moving west and has a greater than 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, the National Hurricane Center said.
"It remains likely this storm system will represent a formidable threat to U.S. interests next week up the Atlantic seaboard" and in the Gulf of Mexico, said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist at Planalytics in Wayne, Pennsylvania, in an e-mail. "It is premature to predict at this point in time who is at most risk."
The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, has yet to produce a named storm this year. Conditions in the ocean are now conducive to storm formation, said another forecaster.
A tropical depression currently moving west in the Atlantic ahead of the storms off Africa will increase the chances of a hurricane occurring next week, said Mike Pigott, a meteorologist with forecaster AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
The depression has weakened because it has encountered dry air, and not enough of the warmer, moister air that causes the storms to strengthen, Pigott said. By sweeping that drier air away, the depression will open a path for the system off the African coast to intensify, he said.
'Major Hurricane'
"The second one, which is much larger, that is the one that could become a major hurricane, Category 3 or higher, early next week," Pigott said.
A storm reaches Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale when its winds are 111 miles (178 kilometers) per hour or more. Hurricane Ike, which killed 54 people and caused about $18 billion in damage, had winds of about 110 mph when it hit the Texas coast near Galveston last year.
Atlantic storms can shut down oil and gas rigs and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico and damage citrus crops in Florida, which is the world's second-largest orange producer behind Brazil. The Gulf is home to about 26 percent of all U.S. oil production.
Friday, July 24, 2009
Myth 5 we're all gonna die anyway
Some events like a weapons of mass destruction attack might kill larger numbers of people, but that doesn't mean widespread destruction is a guaranteed thing. In fact, for widespread destruction, a top-grade WMD must be expertly and precisely applied under ideal conditions. This does not meand that WMDs are to be ignored or that they are nothing to fear, it's just that "Mass Destruction" does NOT mean "Total Destrcution" at all.
As in any emergency situation, those who are prepared and have run through scenarios in their minds are more likely to survive. I've been reading a book about a ship in a hurricane and it was interesting to see the different reactions to the crisis.
Some spent their time thinking of what they would do if the ship sank or turned over. They planned their escape routes, thought about what they would take, put valuables in waterproof containers and taped them to their bodies. Others just stood around in shock, imobilized. They could not believe that this large ship would sink (which it did) and therefore did not prepare.
There is no reason to live in fear and the best way to NOT be afraid is to be prepared for all contingencies. You won't always be home when a disaster hits. You might be at work, on vacation, or in another state. Take a few minutes to think it through. Where will you go? Who will you contact and how? Just a few precautions and thoughts can save your life.
As in any emergency situation, those who are prepared and have run through scenarios in their minds are more likely to survive. I've been reading a book about a ship in a hurricane and it was interesting to see the different reactions to the crisis.
Some spent their time thinking of what they would do if the ship sank or turned over. They planned their escape routes, thought about what they would take, put valuables in waterproof containers and taped them to their bodies. Others just stood around in shock, imobilized. They could not believe that this large ship would sink (which it did) and therefore did not prepare.
There is no reason to live in fear and the best way to NOT be afraid is to be prepared for all contingencies. You won't always be home when a disaster hits. You might be at work, on vacation, or in another state. Take a few minutes to think it through. Where will you go? Who will you contact and how? Just a few precautions and thoughts can save your life.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
People do odd things during a disaster
Statesman Journal Column
July 15, 2009
Prepare to survive disasters
I've seen and heard of a few things that were done during disasters that are funny to talk about later, but not the best course of action during a disaster.
First there was a really nice couple in Delaware that "didn't need any help" after the devastating flood. They moved their TV into the "dry" room and slept, ate and watched TV in there. When they needed to get anywhere, they took a small rowboat.
Besides the bacteria in the water and the mold, there was also the issue of using electricity in such a situation. They were very nice people but were not prepared to evacuate.
Next we have the older lady who, during an earthquake, decided to hold a large heavy mirror up over the mantle of the fireplace so it wouldn't fall. What should she have done? Duck, cover and hold — not hold the mirror.
And then there's the young couple who went to the Mississippi coast to watch the hurricane. Enough said about that.
It may seem that these people are the minority, but the truth is most people think they will be OK and can do whatever they want -It's the others who need to be prepared, have an emergency kit and have a plan.
"We've got stuff around the house, the animals surely will be OK, nothing ever happens here anyway, right?"
Wrong.
Don't be in denial.
Don't think that these things will never happen to you. If they don't — great! But if they do?
Please be prepared for as many situations as you can. It's like teaching your children to look both ways before crossing the street. I'm telling you — look both ways!
Jennifer Bailey, formerly of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, is the Public Affairs Coordinator of Oregon Emergency Management. She may be reached at (503) 378-2911, Ext. 22294, or jbailey@oem.state.or.us.
Learn more
Please send questions about emergency preparedness to be answered in this column to jbailey@oem.state.or.us. Other information may be found at www.oregon. gov/omd/oem or www.fema.gov.
July 15, 2009
Prepare to survive disasters
I've seen and heard of a few things that were done during disasters that are funny to talk about later, but not the best course of action during a disaster.
First there was a really nice couple in Delaware that "didn't need any help" after the devastating flood. They moved their TV into the "dry" room and slept, ate and watched TV in there. When they needed to get anywhere, they took a small rowboat.
Besides the bacteria in the water and the mold, there was also the issue of using electricity in such a situation. They were very nice people but were not prepared to evacuate.
Next we have the older lady who, during an earthquake, decided to hold a large heavy mirror up over the mantle of the fireplace so it wouldn't fall. What should she have done? Duck, cover and hold — not hold the mirror.
And then there's the young couple who went to the Mississippi coast to watch the hurricane. Enough said about that.
It may seem that these people are the minority, but the truth is most people think they will be OK and can do whatever they want -It's the others who need to be prepared, have an emergency kit and have a plan.
"We've got stuff around the house, the animals surely will be OK, nothing ever happens here anyway, right?"
Wrong.
Don't be in denial.
Don't think that these things will never happen to you. If they don't — great! But if they do?
Please be prepared for as many situations as you can. It's like teaching your children to look both ways before crossing the street. I'm telling you — look both ways!
Jennifer Bailey, formerly of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, is the Public Affairs Coordinator of Oregon Emergency Management. She may be reached at (503) 378-2911, Ext. 22294, or jbailey@oem.state.or.us.
Learn more
Please send questions about emergency preparedness to be answered in this column to jbailey@oem.state.or.us. Other information may be found at www.oregon. gov/omd/oem or www.fema.gov.
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