Saturday, February 27, 2010

Tsunami Details

Here at OEM we are monitoring the tsunami. For Oregon it is predicted to be negligible (around half a meter or about 1.5 - 2 feet), but local sea floor and terrain in some areas might make the wave a little larger. Tsunami wave heights peak about 2 hours after they arrive. So we recommend that you stay away from the beach until after the event.

The estimated times of arrival for Oregon are found at http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/2010/02/27/725245/09/webeta725245-09.txt

Cape Blanco, Oregon 1350 PST FEB 27
the Oregon-California border 1350 PST FEB 27
Charleston, Oregon 1402 PST FEB 27
Cascade Head, Oregon 1426 PST FEB 27
Newport, Oregon 1429 PST FEB 27
Tillamook Bay, Oregon 1434 PST FEB 27
the Oregon-Washington border 1439 PST FEB 27
Seaside, Oregon 1446 PST FEB 27
La Push, Washington 1456 PST FEB 27
Westport, Washington 1457 PST FEB 27
Point Grenville, Washington 1459 PST FEB 27
the Washington-British Columbia border 1501 PST FEB 27
Neah Bay, Washington 1507 PST FEB 27
Astoria, Oregon 1511 PST FEB 27


This graphic shows the predicated path of the tsunami and the predicted wave heights. The areas in the red are estimated to be up to 100 cm in height, although the angle, local sea floor, and coastal terrain can affect how high the wave crests on the shore.

It is located at http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/chile/chileem.jpg.

Tsunami Watch for Oregon

Some interesting information on the Chilean earthquake from George Priest and Antonio Baptista:

“The relatively large depth of the EQ (21 miles) and its location on the coast rather than significantly off the coast of Chile has limited the seafloor uplift and resulting tsunami, so only ~2 m of tsunami struck in the near field. The poor geometry of the wave propagation toward Oregon will limit the height to some small percentage of this value when it arrives ~ 2 PM.

The problem for emergency managers is how to respond to the NOAA advisory warning people off of waterfront/beaches. In Newport we have the seafood and wine festival all weekend, so large numbers of people are right at the waterfront. While it is unlikely that they will be in significant danger, given the way Yaquina Bay dissipates tsunami energy (our previous simulations), prudent emergency managers may well want to move folks away from the waterfront. The main lines of people waiting to get into the big tent is a flat parking lot near the Rogue brewery. Other parts of the coast will have similar difficult decisions.”


I just sent this info out via the FlashAlert Network state-wide:

For more information, contact:
James Roddey, Earth Sciences Information Officer, Oregon Dept. of Geology and Mineral Industries (971) 673-1543 (direct line) / (503) 807-8343 (cell)

This is the latest information (9:58 AM) from the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center:

A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA - OREGON - WASHINGTON - BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO ATTU ALASKA...

Wave heights in Oregon, at this point, are not expected to be much more that a foot at most and it looks like they will arrive at about low tide on our coast, early this afternoon. Wave heights at Port Orford, OR are estimated to be 0.3M/1.0 FT, with wave heights expected to peak approximately two hours after initial arrival.

This From NWS/WCATWC:

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS:
A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED WHICH COULD IMPACT THE ADVISORY REGIONS LISTED IN THE HEADLINE. PERSONS IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. EVACUATIONS ARE ONLY ORDERED BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCIES - PERSONS IN TSUNAMI ADVISORY AREAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE WATER, OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.

A TSUNAMI ADVISORY MEANS THAT A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG CURRENTS OR WAVES DANGEROUS TO PERSONS IN OR VERY NEAR THE WATER IS IMMINENT OR EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AREAS UNDER AN ADVISORY. CURRENTS MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO SWIMMERS... BOATS... AND COASTAL STRUCTURES AND MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL.

THE WAVES WILL FIRST REACH LA JOLLA CALIFORNIA AT 002 PM PST ON FEBRUARY 27. ESTIMATED TSUNAMI ARRIVAL TIMES AND MAPS ALONG WITH SAFETY RULES AND OTHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEB SITE: HTTP://www.WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV

AT 1034 PM PACIFIC STANDARD TIME ON FEBRUARY 26 AN EARTHQUAKE WITH PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE 8.8 OCCURRED NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE. THIS EARTHQUAKE HAS GENERATED A TSUNAMI WHICH COULD CAUSE DAMAGE TO REGIONS IN A WARNING OR ADVISORY.

More information on the tsunami can be found at the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research website: http://nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/chile20100227/


James Roddey
Earth Sciences Information Officer
Oregon Dept. of Geology and Mineral Industries
800 NE Oregon Street, Suite 965, Portland, OR 97232
(971) 673-1543 (direct line) / (503) 807-8343 (cell)
mailto:james.roddey@dogami.state.or.us
http://www.oregongeology.org

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

High Wind Warning for Curry County and Southern Oregon Coast

The National Weather Service has issued a High Wind Warning for Curry County and the Southern Oregon Coast.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS LIKELY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
55 TO 65 MPH. THE MAIN THREAT AREA IS FROM BANDON TO GOLD BEACH.
WINDS WILL TAPER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: STRONG GUSTS COULD PRODUCE DOWNED TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...AND WILL IMPACT TRAVEL OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON
EXPOSED STRETCHES OF HIGHWAY 101.

CERT In Action!

Yamhill County, Ore., CERT Members Extinguish Fire at County Fair
Two Yamhill County, Ore., CERT members in the right place at the right time helped prevent a major emergency at the Yamhill County Fair and Rodeo in July 2009. A propane bottle in one of the concession booths sprang a leak, causing propane vapors to pool, ignite, and explode. The bottle then fell on its side, making it more difficult to control the flames.

Two CERT members, on a break from duties at the exit gate, immediately leaped into action. One member called 911 while the other began using an extinguisher to quench the fire. With the help of the vendor’s brother and another fair attendee, they were able to fully extinguish the fire and prevent it from spreading.

“Together, this collection of men who chose to act rather than watch saved the situation from becoming something much more serious,” said Doug McGillivray, emergency manager for Yamhill County.

The explosion and subsequent fire damaged a rear corner of the booth and a large portion of the supplies used by the vendor, and destroyed much of the booth next to it. However, the men were able to stop the fire before it spread to other propane tanks nearby.

“If the fire had not been extinguished quickly, there was a risk of one or more of the tanks exploding, and this is one of the great concerns for firefighters — the explosion of a pressure vessel containing flammable material,” said McGillivray. “A potential major emergency was averted by quick thinking.”

Incidentally, the members recently completed the CERT course on proper fire extinguisher use. One of the men remarked that it was just like he was taught in class: A slow and methodical approach using proper techniques works well.

Monday, February 22, 2010

Earthquake news from the News Review in Douglas County, OR

http://www.nrtoday.com/article/2010100229995


The devastation following the earthquake in Haiti on Jan. 12 shocked many in Douglas County, but right here at home a similarly damaging earthquake is just waiting to happen.Lurking under the sea 50 miles off the Southern Oregon coast is a dangerous threat. Two pieces of the Earth's crust pushing against each other at an offshore fault will eventually cause an earthquake reaching a magnitude of 9.0 or higher that will rock Douglas County, according to experts, as well as the rest of the state.

The resulting shaking, which could last anywhere between four and 10 minutes, would result in tsunamis, flooding and landslides that would likely cause widespread devastation. Buildings, roads, highways and bridges throughout Douglas County would be damaged. Power, water and other utilities would be cut off. Communication with land lines, as well as cell phones, would be impossible.And this type of devastating earthquake could be due to strike Oregon. Geologists predict that such an earthquake happens about every 250 to 800 years. The last time such a huge earthquake hit Oregon was 310 years ago.“It's one of those things that geologists are fond of saying, ‘It's not a matter of if. It's a matter of when,' ” said Umpqua Community College geology instructor Jason Aase.

The chance of Oregon being hit by a major quake in the next 50 years, he said, is about 14 percent.“If you go to California, earthquakes happen all the time,” said Aase. “Here they don't happen so people aren't prepared for them. Certainly not a magnitude 8 or 9. That's huge.”The Haitian earthquake was a magnitude 7.0 and lasted about 40 seconds. At a magnitude of 9, the earthquake lurking in Oregon's future would be much more violent, said Aase. It would release roughly 900 times the amount of energy as the Haiti quake and last for minutes instead of seconds, he said. Government agencies were ill-equipped to handle the Haitian quake devastation. Many buildings would never have met the strict seismic standards required in the U.S.In Douglas County, those who would be called upon to help during a devastating earthquake say they have a disaster plan.

Measures include ensuring the availability of shelters for quake victims, running disaster drills and setting up special modes of communication so government agencies and other disaster responders can connect even if phone lines are down. The Cascadia Subduction ZoneEach day, more pressure builds up along the 700-mile-long Cascadia Subduction Zone, where the Juan de Fuca Plate meets the North American Plate underneath the Pacific Ocean.

Along the subduction zone, which stretches off the coast of southern British Colombia down to upper northern California, the two plates constantly push up against each other, causing the Juan de Fuca Plate to subduct, or sink, underneath the North American Plate. “It's trying to force its way underneath the North American Plate,” said Aase of the Juan de Fuca plate. Aase likens the process to compressing a yard stick on both sides. At first, it will just keep bending and bending, but at some point, the pressure will be too great and the stick will snap.“Eventually, the two plates are going to come together and it's going to release all this energy,” he said. Devastation

The resulting earthquake would have catastrophic, far-reaching effects, said James Roddey, earth sciences information officer for the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries. Roddey, who said he is often referred to as the “Prophet of Doom,” travels the state preaching to the public about the impending disaster, including a speech he gave at Roseburg High School last spring.“There would be substantial damage in Southern Oregon,” he said, adding that this part of Oregon is even more susceptible to damage because the Cascadia fault is about 25 miles closer to the coast than in the rest of Oregon.Douglas County's coastal communities would be the most vulnerable, he said. Towns such as Reedsport and Winchester Bay would be flooded by tsunami waves stretching more than 100 miles long and 30 to 70 feet tall, crashing into the coast repeatedly.

But areas farther inland, such as those along the Interstate 5 corridor, wouldn't be spared despite experiencing a lower magnitude of about 7.0, Roddey said.In Roseburg, for instance, older historic buildings in areas such as downtown, especially those built out of brick, would be destroyed. Homes and businesses near the South Umpqua River and on steep hills could be swept away by landslides. Bridges crossing the South Umpqua River, such as the Washington and Oak Street spans, would be in danger of collapsing. “A huge magnitude 9 earthquake is not going to shake violently. It's going to shake for a long time and that's how it does the damage,” said Roddey.Meanwhile, throughout Douglas County transportation would be extremely limited, causing family members to easily become isolated from each other.“The I-5 corridor would cease to exist,” said Roddey. Since the highway passes over so many waterways with bridges that aren't likely to withstand being shaken for so long, it would be basically impassable, he said.

An Oregon Department of Transportation report on the seismic vulnerability of Oregon state highway bridges, which came out last November, confirms Roddey's warning. “With the majority of state-owned bridges designed and built between 1950 and 1980, the state of Oregon would face a devastating post-earthquake situation if a major event occurred in the state,” the report states.According to the report, along with bridge collapses along Interstate 5, U.S. Highway 101 would be severely damaged. Additionally, all of the existing state highways connecting Highway 101 to I-5 would be impassible, which would effectively cut the coast off from the rest of Douglas County Emergency Response.

In anticipation of all these frightening scenarios, those who'd be called on to help with relief say they have plans in place to make disaster relief go as smoothly as possible.“The people in the field are going to do what they're trained to do,” said Wayne Stinson, who's in charge of the Emergency Management Division of the Douglas County Sheriff's Office. The difficult part will be coordinating relief efforts among various communities and agencies, he said.“The good thing is there's a lot of emergency services in most of the communities,” he said. “We've got back-up systems for a lot of critical components.”“But are we ready?” he added. “ No.”

The problem is it's near impossible to fully prepare for such a large earthquake, but he and others responsible for disaster response in Douglas County are doing their best to be ready for the worst, one step at a time, he said.“It definitely would be a collaboration of the community in the event of a disaster,” said Kathleen Nickel, a spokeswoman for Mercy Medical Center.

The hospital, like other agencies that would respond in a disaster, has created a disaster plan and participates in regular drills with other emergency responders to be prepared for the worst. Mercy, for, instance, has water stored and generators for power with fuel to last about a week, said Bob Dannenhoffer, vice president of clinical effectiveness and a member of the hospital safety committee. Stinson said the Emergency Management Division coordinates one or two disaster drills a year where a county emergency operation center is set up at the sheriff's office to coordinate disaster response.

Last year's exercise was a earthquake scenario, he said. One advantage of smaller, more rural communities of Douglas County, Stinson said, is a familiarity among emergency response agencies.“We all know each other,” he said. “Most of us know each other on a first name or occasional contact basis.”Along with anticipating working together with county emergency responders, the Douglas County Chapter of the American Red Cross has agreements with local churches, schools and community centers to create up to 75 disaster shelters throughout the county, said Red Cross volunteer George Roth, the local emergency services coordinator. To supply these shelters, they've stockpiled food, water, cots, blankets, clothes, toiletries and basic first aid supplies, he said.They've also set up plenty of ways to keep in touch with other shelters and agencies providing disaster relief, using radios that should work even when other modes of communication are down. These radios, he said, will also make it possible for families that have been separated to communicate with one another and send along a message that they're alive. The Red Cross can also set up a Web site, like the one created following Hurricane Katrina, to alert relatives living in other parts of the country that family members are all right. Roth is among about 40 or 50 people in the county that operate amateur radios that can also be used for communication following an earthquake.

The county has taken similar measures to ensure that disaster responders can communicate, said Stinson, but if those fail, communications may depend on amateur radio operators.

Among the greatest concerns is the threat of coastal Douglas County being cut off from the rest of the county, said Stinson. As a result, a special emergency management center would be set up at a Reedsport fire station to serve that part of the county, he said.

Personal responsibility -Ultimately, though, county disaster response experts say each person is responsible for their own safety and survival following a high-magnitude earthquake.

Stinson said he often preaches the importance of personal preparedness, because there's no way people will be able to rely on the government following such a large-scale disaster.Roth agrees.“If you have an event that renders a whole community in need of (emergency) services, you need to be prepared to take care of yourself,” he said.

Families should arrange a central meeting point if they are separated and stockpile enough food, water and other supplies to last for at least three days — two weeks in rural areas and along the coast, he said.“The important thing is for people to be aware that it can happen,” he said. “Make a kit and prepare as a family.”•

You can reach reporter Inka Bajandas at 541-957-4202 or by e-mail at ibajandas@nrtoday.com.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

FEMA Region VII Earthquake Message


Yesterday we talked about an earthquake off the coast of Oregon, and today we see that FEMA Region 7 is giving good advice on how to prepare for an earthquake, and what to do when one happens.

FEMA Region 7 is in the midwest where earthquakes rarely occur, yet they still urge preparedness because earthquake DO happen!

Before an earthquake occurs:
  • Consider purchasing earthquake insurance.
  • Buy a 20-gallon garbage can and fill it with emergency supplies.
  • Consider retrofitting your home to make it more resistant to earthquake damage.
  • Educate your children about earthquake safety.
  • Anchor heavy furniture, shelves, cupboards and appliances to the walls or floor.
  • Store dangerous chemicals such as flammable liquids and poisons in a secure place.
  • Learn how to shut off the gas, electricity and water.
  • Have money in savings for post-catastrophic expenses that aren’t covered by your earthquake insurance policy. These expenses may include higher insurance deductible and repair or replacement claims that exceed your policy limits.

When an earthquake hits, what to do if you’re indoors:

  • DROP to the ground;
  • Take COVER by getting under a sturdy table or other piece of furniture; and
  • HOLD ON until the shaking stops. Cover your face and head with your arms and crouch in an inside corner of the building.
  • Stay away from glass, windows, outside doors and walls, and anything that could fall
  • Stay in bed if you are there when the earthquake strikes. Hold on and protect your head with a pillow, unless you are under a heavy light fixture that could fall. In that case, move to the nearest safe place.
  • Stay inside until shaking stops and it is safe to go outside. Research has shown that most injuries occur when people inside buildings attempt to move to a different location inside the building or try to leave.
  • Be aware that the electricity may go out or the sprinkler systems or fire alarms may turn on.

When an earthquake hits, what to do if you’re outdoors:

  • Stay there. Drop, Cover and Hold.
  • Move away from buildings, streetlights, and utility wires.
  • Once in the open, stay there until the shaking stops. The greatest danger exists directly outside buildings, at exits, and alongside exterior walls. Ground movement during an earthquake is seldom the direct cause of death or injury. Most earthquake-related casualties result from collapsing walls, flying glass, and falling objects.

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Earthquake off Oregon Coast on Feb 13


Few people watch the USGS Earthquake website. Most Oregonians didn't know that there was a 4.3 earthquake about 200 miles west of Eugene, OR, out in the Pacific Ocean.

This is a relatively minor earthquake and small ones like this happen a dozen or so times every year. So what?

We keep our eyes on these smaller earthquakes as reminders that a big one could occur. That is why it is important to be prepared: have a plan, have an emergency and survival kit, and know what to do.

Like Haiti, a devastating earthquake can occur at any time. Be prepared!

Friday, February 12, 2010

Oregon Department of GeologY AND Mineral Industries

Dr. Vicki S. McConnell, State Geologist


February 12, 2010

Read the complete news release in the attached PDF or go online at: http://www.oregongeology.org/

New multi-year tsunami mapping and outreach program comes to the Oregon Coast
Several coastal communities selected to become TsunamiReady, TsunamiPrepared over the next year

Portland, Oregon: The Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI), in partnership with Oregon Emergency Management and the National Weather Service, are enhancing and expanding tsunami preparedness for Oregon coastal communities with a new program called TsunamiReady, TsunamiPrepared.

Funded by a multi-year, multi-million dollar grant from the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program overseen by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), TsunamiReady, TsunamiPrepared will accelerate the remapping of the Oregon coast for tsunami inundation using state of the art computer modeling and laser based terrain mapping (lidar). The outcome will be the creation of new, more accurate tsunami evacuation maps for the entire 362 mile length of the Oregon coast.

The enhanced tsunami mapping and outreach program, TsunamiReady, TsunamiPrepared, will also build on the hard work coastal communities have already accomplished, or assist in work they are ready to begin, by supporting a grass roots program of awareness and preparedness.

TsunamiReady, TsunamiPrepared will also provide much needed resources to help these communities create or maintain a sustained effort of education and preparation in anticipation of the next, inevitable tsunami to strike the Oregon coast.

Communities chosen for the first year of accelerated funding of the TsunamiReady, TsunamiPrepared program include Rockaway Beach, Manzanita, Nehalem, and Wheeler on the north coast, Yachats, Waldport and Seal Rock on the central coast and Bandon on the south coast. Adjacent state parks to these communities will also participate in the program, with details of individual community efforts being finalized.

Support for all coastal towns interested in accelerating their earthquake and tsunami programs is also available in many forms, from an on-line clearing house of resources and emergency prep ideas, to workshops, printed materials, and media resources.

Read the complete news release in the attached PDF or go online at: http://www.oregongeology.org/

James RoddeyEarth Sciences Information OfficerOregon Dept. of Geology and Mineral Industries800 NE Oregon Street, Suite 965, Portland, OR 97232(971) 673-1543 (direct line) / (503) 807-8343 (cell)mailto:james.roddey@dogami.state.or.us
http://www.oregongeology.org

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Winter Returns...With a Twist

Over on Oregon Live there is an article about the return of winter storms to the North West.

The winter of our warm content will hit a small speed bump this week, as a series of storms sweep in off the Pacific, bringing rain to the valleys and much needed snow to the Cascades.

During this most typical of El Niño winters, every little bit helps when it comes to precipitation and especially building the snowpack before the gradual summer melt-off. Still, don't expect the kind of lashing rains and three foot snow dumps we should have been seeing in January and the first ten days of February.

El Niño -- the warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean surface off the coast of South America that occurs about every two to six years -- tends to spell drier and warmer winters in the Pacific Northwest, wetter storms in the Southwest and colder winters in the South. "

As Februarys go, it's not going to be that bad," said forecaster Chris Collins of the National Weather Service in Portland. "We're going to see a system come through about every 24 hours for the next several days, but the jet stream is not aimed at us so the brunt of these storms will brush us and head to the north into Washington."

Check out the full explanation at http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2010/02/winter_returns_sort_of_with_a.html

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

High Wind Warning on Thursday for Southern Oregon Coast

The National Weather Service has issued a High Wind Warning for the Southern Oregon coast from Florence to Brookings.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A HIGH WINDWARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM PST THURSDAY. THEHIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.*

TIMING: THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.*

WINDS: SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS 55 TO 65 MPH. THE MAIN THREAT AREA IS FROM AROUND GOLD BEACH TO PORT ORFORD AND CAPE BLANCO. THE WINDS WILL TAPER BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.

The High Wind Watch from Florence to Astoria remains in effect.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

More rain is on the way

http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2010/02/more_rain_is_on_the_way_1.html

By Noelle Crombie, The Oregonian
February 04, 2010, 4:37AM

If you were hoping for a glimpse of sunshine today, you're out of luck.
If the forecast holds up, Portland's looking at a classic winter day in the Pacific Northwest. And we all know what that means: rain.

The forecast calls for a good chance of showers, mostly this afternoon, and a daytime high that'll top out in the low 50s. Wish we had better weather news for the weekend but looks like more of the same is on the way.

And before we go, here's something cool to jump start the day: What does Oregon sound like? Check out this cool project that aims to collect sounds from across the country. The goal: a sound map of the United States.
-- The Oregonian

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

American Red Cross response to Triangle of Life

For information on how to deal with an earthquake, please go to http://www.earthquakecountry.info/dropcoverholdon/





American Red Cross response to "Triangle of Life" by Doug Copp
9/11/2004

Sent from
Rocky Lopes, PhD Manager, Community Disaster Education American Red Cross National Headquarters


Recently it has been brought to my attention that an email from Doug Copp, titled "Triangle of Life," is making its rounds again on the Internet. "Drop, Cover, and Hold On" is CORRECT, accurate, and APPROPRIATE for use in the United States for Earthquake safety. Mr. Copp's assertions in his message that everyone is always crushed if they get under something is incorrect.


Recently, the American Red Cross became aware of a challenge to the earthquake safety advice "Drop, Cover, and Hold On." This is according to information from Mr. Doug Copp, the Rescue Chief and Disaster Manager of American Rescue Team International (a private company not affiliated with the U.S. Government or other agency.)



He says that going underneath objects during an earthquake [as in children being told to get under their desks at school] is very dangerous, and fatal should the building collapse in a strong earthquake. He also states that "everyone who gets under a doorway when a building collapses is killed."



He further states that "if you are in bed when an earthquake happens, to roll out of bed next to it," and he also says that "If an earthquake happens while you are watching television and you cannot easily escape by getting out the door or window, then lie down and curl up in the fetal position next to a sofa, or large chair."



These recommendations are inaccurate for application in the United States and inconsistent with information developed through earthquake research. Mr. Copp based his statements on observations of damage to buildings after an earthquake in Turkey.



It is like "apples and oranges" to compare building construction standards, techniques, engineering principles, and construction materials between Turkey and the United States.


We at the American Red Cross have studied the research on the topic of earthquake safety for many years. We have benefited from extensive research done by the California Office of Emergency Services, California Seismic Safety Commission, professional and academic research organizations, and emergency management agencies, who have also studied the recommendation to "drop, cover, and hold on!" during the shaking of an earthquake. Personally, I have also benefited from those who preceded me in doing earthquake education in California since the Field Act was passed in 1933.


What the claims made by Mr. Copp of ARTI, Inc., does not seem to distinguish is that the recommendation to "drop, cover, and hold on!" is a U.S.-based recommendation based on U.S. Building Codes and construction standards. Much research in the United States has confirmed that "Drop, Cover, and Hold On!" has saved lives in the United States. Engineering researchers have demonstrated that very few buildings collapse or "pancake" in the U.S. as they might do in other countries. Using a web site to show one picture of one U.S. building that had a partial collapse after a major quake in an area with thousands of buildings that did not collapse during the same quake is inappropriate and misleading.


According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which collects data on injuries and deaths from all reportable causes in the U.S., as well as data from three University-based studies performed after the Loma Prieta (September, 1989) and Northridge (January, 1994) earthquakes in California, the following data are indicated: Loma Prieta: 63 deaths, approximately 3,700 people were injured. Most injuries happened as a result of the collapse of the Cypress Street section of I-880 in Oakland. Northridge: 57 deaths, 1,500 serious injuries.



Most injuries were from falls caused by people trying to get out of their homes, or serious cuts and broken bones when people ran, barefooted, over broken glass (the earthquake happened in the early morning on a federal holiday when many people were still in bed.) There were millions of people in each of these earthquake-affected areas, and of those millions, many of them reported to have "dropped, covered, and held on" during the shaking of the earthquake.


We contend that "Drop, Cover, and Hold On" indeed SAVED lives, not killed people. Because the research continues to demonstrate that, in the U.S., "Drop, Cover, and Hold On!" works, the American Red Cross remains behind that recommendation. It is the simplest, reliable, and easiest method to teach people, including children.


The American Red Cross has not recommended use of a doorway for earthquake protection for more than a decade. The problem is that many doorways are not built into the structural integrity of a building, and may not offer protection. Also, simply put, doorways are not suitable for more than one person at a time.


The Red Cross, remaining consistent with the information published in "Talking About Disaster: Guide for Standard Messages," (visit http://www.disastereducation.org/guide.html) states that if you are in bed when an earthquake happens, remain there. Rolling out of bed may lead to being injured by debris on the floor next to the bed. If you have done a good job of earthquake mitigation (that is, removing pictures or mirrors that could fall on a bed; anchoring tall bedroom furniture to wall studs, and the like), then you are safer to stay in bed rather than roll out of it during the shaking of an earthquake.


Also, the Red Cross strongly advises not try to move (that is, escape) during the shaking of an earthquake. The more and the longer distance that someone tries to move, the more likely they are to become injured by falling or flying debris, or by tripping, falling, or getting cut by damaged floors, walls, and items in the path of escape. Identifying potential "void areas" and planning on using them for earthquake protection is more difficult to teach, and hard to remember for people who are not educated in earthquake engineering principles.



The Red Cross is not saying that identifying potential voids is wrong or inappropriate. What we are saying is that "Drop, Cover, and Hold On!" is NOT wrong -- in the United States. The American Red Cross, being a U.S.-based organization, does not extend its recommendations to apply in other countries. What works here may not work elsewhere, so there is no dispute that the "void identification method" or the "Triangle of Life" may indeed be the best thing to teach in other countries where the risk of building collapse, even in moderate earthquakes, is great.



More information can be found at: http://www.snopes.com/inboxer/household/triangle.asp

Monday, February 1, 2010

Pacific Ocean threatens to gobble up Oregon beach towns

January 31, 2010, 4:00PMJaime Francis/The Oregonian

http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2010/01/pacific_ocean_threatening_to_g.html

Newskowin beach at sunset.For more than a decade, the village of Neskowin has watched the ocean chew away at its shoreline, gobbling up as much as half a football field of beach in places. Homes have been threatened, riprap has failed and some ground-level condos are not habitable during the stormier months. Now, the locals have formed a committee aimed at saving their oceanfront way of life. And not a moment too soon, say scientists, who warn that the Pacific is trying to work its way right into the heart of town.

"The future is pretty bleak for Neskowin," said Jonathan Allan, coastal geomorphologist with the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries. "What we've seen is that 10 to 15 years ago, Neskowin had a very broad beach, a very well-developed fore dune that provided protection to homes built there.

"Today, virtually the entire length of Neskowin (which is about 20 feet above sea level) is protected by riprap," he said, referring to the stacks of boulders used to protect shorelines. "The entire shoreline has been hardened and if you actually look at the history of that shoreline-hardening process, the bulk of it has gone in since 1999."

The bright side is that the work Neskowin does today may provide the answers for coastal communities facing the same problems in the future -- a highly likely scenario, Allan said. Scientists with Oregon State University and the state Geology and Mineral Industries Department believe that not only is the sea level rising, but they have recently determined that maximum wave heights -- those mammoth waves that occur offshore during the winter months -- have risen dramatically from a previously estimated 33 feet to as much as 46 feet.

"Possible causes might be changes in storm tracks, higher winds, more intense winter storms, or other factors," said Peter Ruggiero, an assistant professor at OSU's Department of Geosciences. "These probably are related to global warming, but it could also be involved with periodic climate fluctuations ... and our wave records are sufficiently short that we can't be certain yet. But what is clear (is) the waves are getting larger." And they're taking their toll on the coastline. Neskowin's problems became apparent in the late 1990s after two winter storm seasons devoured the beaches. "There was a tremendous erosion," said Guy Sievert, a member of the Neskowin Coastal Hazards Committee. "We started coming here in 1990. We used to stay on the oceanfront and there was never a sense of threat; there was plenty of beach.

All that really changed in the late 1990s." Sievert went so far as to sell a house in the village so he could move to higher ground. "Just the other day, we all woke up to logs and debris as you come in to Neskowin," he said. "The storm surge brought logs and deposited them in the streets. It flooded the streets. It surprises you."

Two vulnerable towns Rockaway, to the north, is in a similar predicament, having lost about 164 yards of beach in recent years. The two towns on Oregon's north coast are particularly vulnerable because both have a long history of settlement and intense development, Allan said. Now, it's no longer the problem of individual homeowners but of the entire community. "The issue that may be coming to the foreground and may become a bigger issue in the future is what happens when homeowners can't pay the high cost to keep riprap in place?" Allan asked. "If they walk away, who is going to step in if that structure fails?" Neskowin has 408 houses, 94 of which are occupied full time by 169 residents.

The cost to maintain the riprap can easily reach into thousands of dollars, and maintenance can be necessary on a yearly basis, Allan said. Two years ago, when the riprap north of Proposal Rock failed, the waves came within hours of destroying a home. "That riprap is the lifeline for Neskowin now, and that's why they are struggling with the issue of what to do," he said. Outreach to experts That's where the Neskowin Coastal Hazards Committee comes in. Recently awarded a grant of about $20,000 from the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development, the group of scientists, professors, state and county employees is reaching out to experts worldwide for help.

"We are just looking for options and opportunities," said Tillamook County Commissioner Mark Labhart, who chairs the committee. "This is the first time it's been done as far as we know on the West Coast. We are trying to gauge the latest science. We're breaking new waves here -- forgive the pun -- trying to address this issue." Possibilities include trucking in sand, constructing vertical walls, or building barriers offshore beneath the water line. But all are extremely expensive and not necessarily doable. It's possible that nature will provide its own fix, as it did in Pacific City after storms scoured the beaches in the 1970s.

The community brought in riprap to protect a new subdivision only to see it disappear under a new deposit of sand, Allan said. The trouble is no one can say for sure when that might occur in Neskowin, or if it will. So the quest to save the village goes on. Sievert says Neskowin is caught between two terrible options: "Building the wall higher and higher, which will destroy the beach, and just letting the ocean have its way. "There are pictures of Neskowin back in the '20s and '30s of the ocean coming all the way to the golf course," he added. "We've created an artificial barrier to the ocean and now how do we preserve what we've created as much as possible, and yet understand the ocean is a natural system you cannot control? Given what we understand, we have not seen the worst of it.

"It's complicated."

Emergency planning for employees from www.ready.gov

Your employees and co-workers are your business's most important and valuable asset. There are some procedures you can put in place before a disaster, but you should also learn about what people need to recover after a disaster. It is possible that your staff will need time to ensure the well-being of their family members, but getting back to work is important to the personal recovery of people who have experienced disasters. It is important to re-establish routines, when possible.

Two-way communication is central before, during and after a disaster.
Include emergency preparedness information in newsletters, on company intranet, periodic employee emails and other internal communications tools.

Consider setting up a telephone calling tree, a password-protected page on the company website, an email alert or a call-in voice recording to communicate with employees in an emergency.

Designate an out-of-town phone number where employees can leave an "I'm Okay" message in a catastrophic disaster.

Provide all co-workers with wallet cards detailing instructions on how to get company information in an emergency situation. Include telephone numbers or Internet passwords for easy reference.

Maintain open communications where co-workers are free to bring questions and concerns to company leadership.

Ensure you have established staff members who are responsible for communicating regularly to employees.

Talk to co-workers with disabilities. If you have employees with disabilities ask about what assistance is needed. People with disabilities typically know what assistance they will need in an emergency.

Identify co-workers in your organization with special needs.

Engage people with disabilities in emergency planning.

Ask about communications difficulties, physical limitations, equipment instructions and medication procedures.

Identify people willing to help co-workers with disabilities and be sure they are able to handle the job. This is particularly important if someone needs to be lifted or carried.

Plan how you will alert people who cannot hear an alarm or instructions.
Frequently review and practice what you intend to do during and after an emergency with drills and exercises.